Apple’s First Foldable iPhone Set for Scarce Launch, May Slip Past September Debut
Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says Apple's long-awaited foldable iPhone, expected to be called iPhone Ultra, will arrive in such short supply that its actual on-sale date could trail its September unveiling by weeks, echoing how Apple handled the original iPhone X.
Apple’s first foldable iPhone looks set to become one of the hardest new devices to actually get your hands on this year.
According to Apple supply chain analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who previously reported the missing Siri AI features for the iPhone 18, manufacturing constraints are expected to leave the upcoming “iPhone Ultra” in extremely short supply.
Because of this crunch, Apple may unveil the device publicly weeks before customers can actually order it. The pattern would mirror the iPhone X launch in 2017, when Apple unveiled a groundbreaking design months before it became widely available.
Production Numbers Tell the Story
Kuo’s latest industry survey, shared in a post on X, points to a stark supply gap between Apple’s foldable and its conventional flagships.
He estimates total assembly shipments for the foldable iPhone will land around 7 to 8 million units for the second half of 2026, with only 0.5 to 1 million of those ready in the third quarter.
Compare that to the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, which Kuo expects to ship 20 to 22 million combined units in the same quarter, already enough to support a normal launch.
That gap is what makes a straightforward September release for the foldable unlikely, even though Apple typically wants new hardware in stores the moment it’s announced.
As MacRumors noted, Apple faced an almost identical situation with the iPhone X, which debuted alongside the iPhone 8 lineup on September 12, 2017, but didn’t open for pre-order until six weeks later, on October 27.
Meanwhile, the iPhone 8 series became available for pre-orders just three days after the announcement.
A Repeat of the iPhone X Playbook
Kuo believes Apple will repeat the iPhone X rollout, delaying foldable iPhone pre-orders until late 2026.
He attributes the delay to manufacturing challenges that have slowed early production of the device, which is rumored to feature a roughly 5.5-inch outer display and a 7.8-inch inner display in a book-style design similar to Samsung’s Galaxy Z Fold, all packed into a body under 5mm thick when unfolded, thinner than even the iPhone Air.
Kuo reaffirmed pricing estimates in the range of $2,299 to $2,499, positioning the device well above Apple’s existing premium hardware, as CEO Tim Cook has said price increases are becoming unavoidable.
What Buyers Should Expect at Launch
For anyone hoping to buy a foldable iPhone close to launch, Kuo’s numbers suggest patience will be required.
He estimates the device could sell out almost immediately once pre-orders do open, with delivery lead times quickly stretching to four to six weeks or longer, meaning many buyers may not receive their orders until December at the earliest.
Kuo also suggested resellers could flip units for 50 to 100 percent above retail during the initial supply crunch. The situation would mirror early scalping seen during previous Apple launches, including periods when demand for the MacBook Pro outpaced the company’s manufacturing capacity.
Ming-Chi Kuo expects the launch frenzy and supply shortages to ease by the first quarter of 2027, at which point a clearer picture of real-world demand for Apple’s first folding phone should finally start to emerge.
