Crypto crashed in late 2025 due to liquidity issues, macro pressures, leverage resets, and AI investments pulling money out of the market. This reset the market but also created the next big opportunity for 2026.
At the year’s end, the crypto market swung sharply. Bitcoin dropped from a high of $126,000 to $87,000 in December, and now, when I am typing this, it is at $89,000 as mentioned in TradingView. This wiped out over $1 trillion from the market cap during Q4.
There are several reasons behind the late 2025 pullback. This includes leverage resets, macroeconomic pressures, and, of course, AI drawing capital away.
This cleared excess from the market, and a possible end to a 4-year cycle can start a more mature bullrun in 2026. Now I will discuss how this crypto pullback can open up new opportunities in the upcoming days.
Expert Year-end Review and Insights on 2025's Lessons
This crash was a turning point for the cryptocurrency market. The year saw regulatory recognition, ETF launches, and Bitcoin reaching nearly $126,000. Despite these milestones, prices remained flat with no breakout rally. It is clear that crypto hit major targets, but it ended the year unsettled due to a late reset in market risk.
Q4 kicked off strong, but optimism faded as rate cuts looked unlikely. AI overvaluation fears and unwinding leveraged crypto trades triggered forced selling in the market. It is noted that this pullback was a leverage reset, not a collapse.
2025 is also considered a crypto maturation year and a shift from hype to infrastructure. This also aligns with industry voices:
- Jamie Elkaleh (Bitget Wallet CMO) described Q4 as a leverage reset.
- Nic Puckrin (Coin Bureau co-founder) said it cleared excessive risk.
- Tom Lee (Fundstrat) sees $200K–$250K in 2026, driven by ETFs, institutions, and macro tailwinds as mentioned in 24/7 Wall St.
- Peter Brandt warns of a $58K–$62K downside if support breaks, as noted by MEXC.
- Ripple’s CEO predicts $180K, while Solana’s President expects above $100K
Is the Crypto Bull Run Still Valid?
Considering the late 2025 market performance, it is cooling but constructive. Bitcoin’s 300-day SMA acts as a support, and if it holds $100,667, the bull run still remains valid.
Other than that, if you focus on the October market performance, all of the cycle indicators turned negative and kumo twist. This also signals a bearish zone.
The four-year halving cycle may be ending halvings in 2016/2020/2024 had strong rallies, but 2025 was an exception.
According to Forex.com, in 2026, the crypto market is indicating a mixed outlook. This time-lapse is considered a transition period, and there can be a bull pullback or a new bear market.
Key Signals for a 2026 Bull Run
There are several key signals that suggest 2026 upsides, such as:
- Institutional anchoring reduces volatility.
- ETF demand absorbs supply.
- Rising valuations end the four-year cycle.
- Bitcoin reserves race among nations/companies.
- Shift to the “fundamentals era” and focus on computing power over speculation.
Tom Lee: $200K–$250K by end-2026.
Base case: $100K–$150K.
Bear case: $70K–$10K if macro tightens.
Marketing is accelerating structural shifts, which include new capital and broader adoption.
Risks and Bearish Signals for 2026
Don’t forget that if there is a Bullrun opportunity, there are also bearish indications that you cannot ignore. Monetary policy shifts, long-term holder behavior, and a four-year cycle (if valid) point to weakness.
- Peter Brandt: $58K–$62K if wedge breaks.
- BeInCrypto: Bearish indicators since October.
- MarketPulse: $90K as turning point below risks deeper drop.
- Leverage remains another crash possibility if liquidity dries.
Final Thoughts
In my view, the 2026 crypto market feels like a reset with opportunity written all over it. Yes, volatility remains, and risks are real, but institutional adoption, ETF momentum, and macro shifts signal a maturing landscape.
If you’re watching Bitcoin’s support levels and keeping an eye on global trends, you’re well-positioned for what’s next. Whether you’re bullish or cautious, this is a moment where patience, research, and a long-term outlook could pay off.
